The economy of Aruba continues to grow according to Economic Outlook 2024-2025.
ORANJESTAD - The Minister of Economic Affairs, Communication, and Sustainable Development, Mr. Geoffrey Wever, recently presented the Economic Outlook for 2024 and 2025.
The report provides an overview of the economic developments on our island, highlighting the challenges and opportunities we face in the global and regional economy.
Although Aruba has continued its economic growth trajectory after the pandemic, it is crucial to remain vigilant for inflationary pressures and global political tensions that could impact the import prices of goods and services.
Compared to 2022 and 2023, there is a significant increase in the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with an annual growth of 13.7%, according to calculations from April 2024. The nominal GDP for 2023 (Afl. 6,829 million) was equal to 112.3% compared to the 2019 level (Afl. 6,080 million).
For 2024, the expectation is for the GDP to increase by 8.5%, followed by a more moderate growth - "baseline scenario" - of 1.3% in 2025. The expectation is that the nominal GDP for 2024 (Afl. 7,408 million) will be 121.8% of the 2019 level, while the nominal GDP for 2025 (Afl. 7,507 million) will be 123.4% of the 2019 level.
According to the Economic Outlook, an inflation rate of 3.1% is expected for 2024 and 2.5% for 2025. The dependency on imports means that factors such as disruptions in the (international) flow of goods, services, and capital can affect the inflation rate in Aruba.
While tourism remains the main driver for growth, the aim is to diversify the economy. Tourism is expected to grow by 14.0% in 2024, which is 53.2% higher compared to 2019, and will continue to grow in the coming years, contributing to overall economic growth. For 2024, an investment increase of 11.7% is expected, with an increase in public investment, while private investments in other hotel projects will continue. The completion is by the end of 2024.
To facilitate Aruba's economic projections, DEACI uses the macroeconomic model MARUBA. The management of the MARUBA model falls under the responsibility of DEACI. DEACI continuously dialogues with various agencies and local experts. Based on analyses of different developments, makes its economic projections.
For more information, consult the Economic Outlook 2024-2025.